Navigating trade uncertainty, shifting federal policy, rising production costs  

By Blair Shipp 

Indiana soybean producers are navigating a challenging mix of global trade uncertainty, shifting federal policy, and steep production costs. ASA and Indiana grower leaders are working across these fronts to protect market access, strengthen domestic demand, and ensure producers have the support needed to support stable operations. 

From major developments in U.S.–China trade to ongoing work in the biofuels sector, this fall’s policy landscape will have direct implications across the state. 

On Oct. 30, President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea and announced a new set of soybean purchase commitments intended to restore stability between the two countries. China agreed to minimum purchases of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the rest of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. 

While details are still being finalized, ASA is tracking implementation closely to ensure these commitments translate into actual shipments and a meaningful boost for U.S. soybean demand. 

For Indiana, the announcement signals a potential return to more predictable export channels. China is the world’s largest soybean buyer and, in stable years, imports 25 to 30 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans. A move back toward those historical volumes would support stronger prices and bring more consistency to the global markets that influence the state’s agricultural economy. 

Significant challenges remain, however. A 10 percent baseline tariff continues to make U.S. soybeans less price competitive than Brazilian supplies, even with retaliatory tariffs suspended. ASA is working with federal officials to push for improved market access, tariff reductions and expanded opportunities for U.S. agriculture. 

ASA also supports trade frameworks with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia. These negotiations aim to reduce tariffs, improve transparency and create consistent openings for U.S. soybean exports — opportunities that help stabilize local markets and basis levels throughout the Midwest. 

Even with progress on trade, producers across Indiana continue to face economic pressures from high input costs, market volatility and recent disruptions in export demand. ASA is pressing for targeted assistance that helps growers bridge these challenges, including programs to offset trade-related losses, disaster aid for weather impacts, and policies that lower the cost of production. These efforts are intended to support farm operations until longer-term market stability and trade certainty are restored. 

Biofuels and domestic demand 

Biofuels remain a key demand driver for soybean oil, with about half of all processed oil used in biomass-based diesel. This market is especially important in states like Indiana, where soybean processing and biofuels production play a significant regional economic role. 

ASA and the National Oilseed Processors Association recently sent a joint letter to President Trump urging action on several federal biofuel policies. 

Their priorities include finalizing EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027, limiting RIN credit generation from foreign feedstocks, discouraging imports of used cooking oil and beef tallow that displace domestic soybean oil, reallocating waived volumes associated with small refinery exemptions, and issuing timely Treasury guidance for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit to ensure domestic agricultural feedstocks remain central to program eligibility. 

ASA CEO Stephen Censky emphasized that these actions will directly affect grower profitability and crush investments. Clear, consistent policy could increase domestic biofuel production, strengthen demand for soybean oil, and encourage continued construction and expansion of processing capacity — developments that benefit the state’s rural communities and soy value chain. 

EPA recently addressed a backlog of small refinery exemption petitions for compliance years 2021-24, granting a mix of full and partial exemptions and returning related RINs for potential reallocation. 

ASA continues to advocate for full reallocation of these RINs for 2023-24 to maintain the integrity of the RFS and support robust domestic demand. Combined with final RVOs for 2026-27 and updated 45Z guidance, these actions will help provide greater certainty to the biofuels market. 

Input costs and farm operations 

Rising input costs remain a major concern for soybean production across Indiana. ASA President Caleb Ragland recently testified before Congress about the financial pressures growers face nationwide. Expenses for seed, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel and capital have risen significantly over the past five years. 

Fertilizer costs, in particular, have climbed faster than general inflation, and phosphate and potash — key nutrients for soybean production — have now been designated as critical minerals by the U.S. Geological Survey. 

This designation underscores the need for a more reliable and affordable domestic supply. ASA is urging policymakers to reduce tariffs on imported inputs, improve competition in concentrated input markets, and provide targeted federal support during periods of extreme price volatility. 

The organization continues working with USDA, the Department of Justice and Congress to ensure producers can access necessary inputs at fair prices. 

Government funding and farm assistance 

Following a partial federal government shutdown, funding was restored on Nov. 12 when the House passed a spending measure and President Trump signed it into law. 

The legislation funds USDA, extends key farm bill provisions, maintains the U.S. Grain Standards Act, and keeps federal operations running through the end of January. 

“The restoration of funding ensures farmers regain access to essential government services,” Ragland said in a recent ASA release. “Now that the government is open, growers need support for farmer assistance programs, finalization of biofuel regulations, and policies that help expand trade opportunities for U.S. soy.”